Oscar Predictions —2–23–23

Best Picture

• “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Malte Grunert, Producer
• “Avatar: The Way of Water,” James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
• “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers
• “Elvis,” Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers (Will Win, Should Win)
• “The Fabelmans,” Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers
• “Tár,” Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers
• “Top Gun: Maverick,” Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers; Bowen Tibbetts, Executive Assistant
• “Triangle of Sadness,” Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers
• “Women Talking,” Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers
• Should’ve Been Nominated: “Aftersun,” Mark Ceryak, Amy Jackson, Barry Jenkins and Adele Romanski

Best Director

• Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
• Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) (Will Win, Should Win)
• Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)
• Todd Field (“Tár”)
• Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Charlotte Wells (“Aftersun”)

Best Lead Actor

• Austin Butler (“Elvis”)
• Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
• Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) (Will Win)
• Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”) (Should Win)
• Bill Nighy (“Living”)
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Jack Lowden (“Benediction”)

Best Lead Actress

• Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) (Will Win, Should Win)
• Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)
• Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)
• Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)
• Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Frankie Corio (“Aftersun”)

Best Supporting Actor

• Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
• Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)
• Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)
• Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) (Should Win)
• Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) (Will Win)
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Rayan Sarlak (“Hit the Road”)

Best Supporting Actress

• Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”) (Will Win)
• Hong Chau (“The Whale”)
• Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) (Should Win)
• Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
• Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
• Should’ve Been Nominated: Lee Ji-eun (“Broker”)

Best Adapted Screenplay

• “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell (Should Win)
• “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” Written by Rian Johnson
• “Living,” Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
• “Top Gun: Maverick,” Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
• “Women Talking,” Screenplay by Sarah Polley (Will Win)
• Should’ve Been Nominated: “Happening,” Screenplay by Audrey Diwan, Marcia Romano, and Anne Berest

Best Original Screenplay

• “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Written by Martin McDonagh
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Will Win, Should Win)
• “The Fabelmans,” Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
• “Tár,” Written by Todd Field
• “Triangle of Sadness,” Written by Ruben Östlund
• Should’ve Been Nominated: “Aftersun,” Written by Charlotte Wells

Best Cinematography

• “All Quiet on the Western Front”, James Friend (Will Win, Should Win)
• “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” Darius Khondji
• “Elvis,” Mandy Walker
• “Empire of Light,” Roger Deakins
• “Tár,” Florian Hoffmeister
• Should’ve Been Nominated: “Aftersun,” Gregory Oke

Best Documentary Feature Film

• “All That Breathes,” Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer
• “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed,” Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov
• “Fire of Love,” Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman
• “A House Made of Splinters,” Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström
• “Navalny,” Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris (Will Win)

Best Film Editing

• “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
• “Elvis,” Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Paul Rogers (Will Win, Should Win)
• “Tár,” Monika Willi
• “Top Gun: Maverick,” Eddie Hamilton
• Should’ve Been Nominated: “Aftersun”, Blair McClendon

Best International Feature Film

• “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany) (Will Win)
• “Argentina, 1985” (Argentina)
• “Close” (Belgium)
• “EO” (Poland)
• “The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)

Best Original Song

• “Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman,” Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
• “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick,” Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
• “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
• “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR,” Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose (Will Win, Should Win)
• “This Is a Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne

Best Production Design

• “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper (Should Win)
• “Avatar: The Way of Water,” Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
• “Babylon,” Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
• “Elvis,” Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn (Will Win)
• “The Fabelmans,” Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara
• Should’ve Been Nominated: “You Won’t Be Alone,” Bethany Ryan

Best Visual Effects

• “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar
• “Avatar: The Way of Water,” Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett (Will Win, Should Win)
• “The Batman,” Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy
• “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick
• “Top Gun: Maverick,” Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher
• Should’ve Been Nominated: “Marcel the Shell With Shoes On,” Zdravko “Zee” Stoitchkov

Best Animated Feature Film

• “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio,” Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley (Will Win)
• “Marcel the Shell With Shoes On,” Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey
• “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish,” Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
• “The Sea Beast,” Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
• “Turning Red,” Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins (Should Win)

Best Costume Design

• “Babylon,” Mary Zophres
• “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Ruth Carter (Should Win)
• “Elvis,” Catherine Martin (Will Win)
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Shirley Kurata
• “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris,” Jenny Beavan
• Should’ve Been Nominated: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio,”— Brittany Bennett, Diane Dwyer, Elsa Dye, Laura Kerrigan, Thalia Lane, Helen Plaumer, Annika Schindler, Lucy Sturley, and Amanda Thomas

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová (Should Win)
• “The Batman,” Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine
• “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
• “Elvis,” Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti (Will Win)
• “The Whale,” Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley
• Should’ve Been Nominated: “You Won’t Be Alone,” Dusica Vuksanovic

Best Original Score

• “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Volker Bertelmann
• “Babylon,” Justin Hurwitz (Will Win, Should Win)
• “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Carter Burwell
• “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Son Lux
• “The Fabelmans,” John Williams
• Should’ve Been Nominated: “The Batman,” Michael Giacchino

Best Sound

• “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
• “Avatar: The Way of Water,” Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges
• “The Batman,” Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson (Should Win)
• “Elvis,” David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller (Will Win)
• “Top Gun: Maverick,” Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
• Should’ve Been Nominated: “TÁR,” Roland Winke (Sound Mixer), Stephen Griffiths (Supervising Sound Editor), Deb Adair and Steve Single (Re-Recording Mixers), Andy Shelley (Dialogue Editor)